One directional call, built from public data and read by hand. No black box, no proprietary gauge network — here is exactly what feeds the read, and where the honest gaps are.
From ice to water: what we watch, in the order it propagates toward your navigation season.
Each release combines these layers. Two are live and verified; the baseline layer is the honest gap we are closing.
Gauge networks (PEGELONLINE), CCNR/CHR flow status, Copernicus EDO soil-moisture and drought maps. The operational backbone of every call.
Live · verifiedSeasonal outlooks from WMO / C3S / NOAA, ENSO state, and the snow-to-flow lag literature (ERL 2025: 44–79 day lag).
Live · verifiedGLAMOS glacier mass and multi-year precipitation deficit. Structural context for the season, not a single-event signal.
Framework · pending measurementGRACE-FO total water storage as the background-probability amplifier for ≥12-month reads. Pairs with, never replaces, the condition lines.
Framework · pending measurementPublic, official, and peer-reviewed. We add the reading — not a private data feed.
A directional read — favourable / corrective / defensive — with the public evidence behind it, and the action window it implies for your decisions.
A water-level forecast, a navigational authority, or investment advice. Vessel-specific operational decisions remain with the operator.
The chain, the layers, and the sources — so you can audit the read yourself and see where the gap is.
Manufacturing anxiety. We state only checkable facts and one honest directional call — never a scarier number than the data supports.
Open the 2027 first-issue samples — unredacted, free to browse.